For years, Israel and Iran avoided direct confrontation, as Israel secretly sabotaged Tehran’s interests and assassinated its officials without claiming responsibility, and Iran encouraged allies to attack Israel while rarely doing so itself.
Now, the two countries seem prepared to risk a direct, prolonged and extraordinarily costly conflict.
After Israel invaded Lebanon to confront Iran’s strongest ally, Hezbollah, and Iran’s second massive missile attack on Israel in less than six months, Israel seems ready to strike Iran directly, in a much more forceful and public way than it ever has, and Iran has warned of massive retaliation if it does.
“We are in a different story right now,” said Yoel Guzansky, a former senior security official who oversaw Iran strategy on Israel’s National Security Council. “We have a consensus in Israel — among the military, the defense experts, analysts and politicians — that Israel should respond in force to Iran’s attack.”
To many Israelis, there is now little to lose: Iran’s efforts to strike the urban sprawl around Tel Aviv crossed a threshold that Tehran has never previously breached, even during its earlier missile attack in April, which targeted air bases but not civilian areas.
Critics of Israel often see the country as the primary instigator of unrest in the Middle East. But most Israelis see themselves as the victims of constant attack from Iran’s proxies — particularly Hamas in Gaza, iklad biz the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon — and feel that they have not done enough to defend themselves. As a result, there are growing calls in Israel to make Iran fully accountable for its allies’ attacks, even if it risks an explosive reaction.